It would be “disastrous” for astronomy in the United States if the federal government does not invest in the Thirty Meter Telescope, according to a survey released this morning.
The long-awaited Astronomy and Astrophysics Decadal Survey, also called Astro2020, was unveiled today by the National Academy of Sciences, a private, nongovernmental scientific organization. As a comprehensive analysis of the current state of the astronomy field, the survey is used to make recommendations about projects the federal government should invest in.
Although the National Science Foundation is not bound by the findings of the 614-page survey, it has funded past projects based on the recommendations of previous NAS surveys. Because of this, the release of the survey has become an inflection point for the controversial TMT project, which has been seeking NSF funding.
The report advises that, in order for the U.S. to remain competitive with European astronomy projects over the next decade, it is vital that NSF invest in a U.S.-based Extremely Large Telescope Project that would support both the TMT and the Giant Magellan Telescope, which is planned to be built in Chile with a 22-meter mirror.
Because the European Extremely Large Telescope — another Chilean observatory currently being built under the auspices of the European Organisation for Astronomical Research in the Southern Hemisphere — has a 39-meter mirror, Astro2020 advises that federal investment in either TMT or GMT alone will not be sufficiently competitive with European astronomy.
Investing in both projects will give the U.S. large ground-based facilities in both the north and south hemispheres, giving the U.S. the advantage.
“Our panel believes the two-telescope (U.S. Extremely Large Telescope Project) is needed to maintain U.S. leadership, and that it would be disastrous if no U.S.-ELTP is realized,” the survey said.
But Astro2020 also acknowledges a myriad of risks tied to TMT. According to the survey, both GMT and TMT likely are incapable of achieving full funding even with support from the NSF.
“The TMT project now estimates a total construction cost of $2.65 billion in real-year dollars,” according to the survey. “Of this amount, 18% has been spent to-date. An additional 41% has been committed by the current partners. The project plans for the remaining 41% to come from NSF (30%) and additional (uncommitted) funds from current partners (11%). In this case, with all the committed funds and full funding from NSF, there is still a shortfall of $310 million.”
The survey also views the TMT’s construction site as an open question.
Although a court in the Canary Islands, Spain, in August revoked an agreement to use public lands as a site for the observatory, Astro2020 portrays that location as not only a still-viable option, but an “acceptable” alternative to Maunakea that will not increase the cost of the project or delay it, and will only marginally limit the effectiveness of the facility.
But, as the survey acknowledges, the choice of a site could affect whether the TMT partners remain involved with the project.
Both TMT and GMT are seeking $800 million from the NSF. The survey estimates that would fit within the NSF’s budget, but would consume 70% of its major facilities funding over five years beginning in 2023.
“In other words, NSF might have the capacity to provide the requested funds, but only if the U.S.-ELTP was the number one major NSF construction project until late in the decade,” the survey stated.
Astro2020 therefore recommends the NSF cap its funding for each project at no more than $800 million, and that the agency be guaranteed a proportional share of viewing time at each facility. And, should either project be unable to meet their full financial obligations, the NSF may cut that project and instead invest more in the other.
The survey also acknowledges the human challenges facing TMT.
Extensive sidebars within the survey discuss the history of Maunakea and its significance to Native Hawaiians, and it largely condemns the astronomy field’s historical treatment of them.
“When value is equated with dollar signs, the value placed by the (astronomy profession) on Kanaka Maoli culture, values, voices, and needs is ‘minimal’ except under threat of discontinued operation and construction of observatories on Maunakea,” the survey states.
In order to resolve the current impasse between Native Hawaiians and the TMT, Astro2020 recommends that funding agencies hold any development on Maunakea to a high ethical standard and work toward developing long-term partnerships with indigenous communities.
But to do this, the survey continued, the astronomy profession must change.
Astro2020 is the first of the NAS’ decadal surveys to dedicate a section to the societal impacts and diversity of the astronomy profession, and it reveals “a profession with profound weaknesses.”
The survey acknowledges high rates of racial discrimination and sexual harassment within the field, resulting in a lack of representation of marginalized groups working within astronomy.
“Furthermore, astronomers have not always engaged adequately with local communities impacted by observatories; the consequences are made evident by the growing resistance from indigenous peoples and their supporters, particularly surrounding construction on the summit of Maunakea in Hawaii,” the survey stated. “This perspective has prioritized facilities over their impact on people and cultures and is facing increased resistance from those most impacted.”
A statement from Doug Simons, director of the University of Hawaii’s Institute for Astronomy, acknowledged the release of the survey and its importance.
“The Decadal Survey on Astronomy and Astrophysics 2020 identified the U.S. Extremely Large Telescope Program, which includes the Thirty Meter Telescope, as a high priority project for this decade,” Simons said in a written statement. “Astro2020 sets the strategy and vision for the next 10 years of transformative science in the U.S. space and ground-based astronomy programs. As the world’s premiere site for ground-based astronomy, Maunakea is a key part of that vision.
“For the University of Hawaii, our focus continues to be on continuing to improve our stewardship of the mauna. That includes finalizing the new Master Plan, updating the Comprehensive Management Plan, completing the decommissioning of the first two telescopes, planning the decommissioning of three more telescopes, and taking further steps to reduce visitor traffic on the mauna using the authorities of the new administrative rules.”
Email Michael Brestovansky at mbrestovansky@hawaiitribune-herald.com.